Macro Beardown Breakdown. India (the second largest wheat producer) has put a ban in wheat exports. China has also banned the export of fertilizers; following the sanctions of Belarus and Russia, and this is essentially limiting the global supply of fertilizer to nothing. Serbia has also banned the export of wheat, corn and cooking oil, and last month Indonesia Palm Oil.
So we have to see if these countries can secure their own supplies before reopening export of key commodities.
However, this snowball effect may continue into other countries and commodities, and all banned commodities have had significant price moves because of these bans.
Morning Update – May 19th, 2022