DECEMBER 14 2021 / SUZANNE MANAR NOUKAHOUA
Often when people are referencing potential rallies, seasonal runs or rotation in the market they have to make the reference general enough because the first of any month is never the same year on year. Those running historical tests can not say specifically on the 16th or the 18th or the 1st of any particular month ‘X’ will happen, because the reality is that last year that date might have been a Sunday, this year it might fall on a Tuesday. So how do advanced traders cut out the noise of dates?
Larry Williams of I really Trade, consistently measures time against TDLIM to both take into account what the futures market is doing on Saturday, and to measure with more specificity when rallies are likely to take place.
By using this methodology Williams is also able to point out to students and colleagues what the futures’ weekend impact will have on larger in Institutional Investors who will need to use the data to hedge their portfolios, balance their deltas, or mitigate volatility exposure, this method of telling time is not only clever, it is much more mathematically sound.
Now to the Christmas Rally, what I’ve shared (min more depth) with my Speakeasy colleagues, is not just the details of a Christmas Rally existing, but how it relates to quadruple witching this Friday (17th December)! As you can see from Williams’ real trading stats from decade on decade, the real earnings on the /ES and /NQ (futures contracts for S&P500 and Nasdaq) don’t come until after this Friday, and the lead up to Christmas, St. Stephan’s Day and up to the New Year.
So friends, these trading streets might be filled with heaviness in the market appetite, but the Christmas rally has yet to begin. Protect your profits, cash is a position, and keep your charting up to date so that when the rally is upon us you’re ready to join momentum with the Bulls.